ImageCat and GFDRR/World Bank session in the upcoming 2016 Understanding Risk Forum to be held in Venice, Italy, May 18-May 20, 2016

14 Apr 2016

ImageCat and GFDRR/World Bank has organized a special session for the upcoming 2016 Understanding Risk Forum to be held in Venice, Italy between May 18th and May 20th. The title of the session is Reading the Tea Leaf: When Risk Models Fail to Predict Disaster Impacts. The session leads are Ron Eguchi, ImageCat and Alanna Simpson, GFDRR. A synopsis of the session is provided below.

Risk models are built on the best available but often less than ideal data which includes our understanding of the physical expression of hazards, engineering design and construction, etc. and many other factors. Its only when a disaster occurs that we can retrospectively assess how well our risk models performed in predicting the extent and magnitude of disaster impacts. In many cases, our models surprise us with their accuracy, but more often, the scale of the disaster is over or under estimated. Post-disaster forensics offer us a critical path for determining why our risk models fail; however, is this information being effectively utilized to improve our risk models?

This interactive session will highlight cases where risk models were effective in approximating the extent of a disaster damage and where they fell short. Panelists will examine the reasons for model efficacy.

• Ron Eguchi (chair), ImageCat
• Kelvin Berryman, GNS Science
• David Lallemant, Stanford University
• Keiko Saito, GFDRR
• John Bevington, ImageCat
• Fumio Yamazaki, Graduate School of Engineering Chiba University, Japan