Article written by Yajie Lee, et al. was published in the Oct 2021 issue of Earthquake Spectra and chosen as an Editors’ Monthly pick

22 Oct 2021

Impacts on catastrophe risk assessments from multi-segment and multi-fault ruptures in the UCERF3 model, the scientific article, written by Yajie Lee, Zhenghui Hui, and William P. Graf of ImageCat, and Siamak Daneshvaran and Farhad Sedaghati of AON Impact Forecasting, was selected by the Editorial Team of the prestigious earthquake engineering journal Earthquake Spectra as Editors’ Monthly Picks for October 2021!

Chart for YJL announcementThe Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) is widely used for modeling earthquake catastrophes in California. This research examines how fault segmentation in the UCERF3 model, which resulted in some very long ruptures in the system that had never been observed in a similar tectonic environment, affects “tail” risk metrics for a state-wide building portfolio. The study found that the new connected ruptures in UCERF3 are highly influential on the estimated “tail” risks and have significant impacts on many crucial real-world (re)insurance decisions.


Read the full article here. An online read-only version can be accessed here. For more information, contact Yajie Lee, Director of Earthquake Risk Services and CAT Model Development, at